Further violence in Nairobi and the Rift Valley followed the protests. On January 21, Minister of State for Internal Security George Saitoti warned against further protests, saying that they would only be "an opportunity for criminals to loot and commit other crimes" and that "illegal acts will be dealt with accordingly". The government also said in reference to the opposition's planned boycott that it was illegal to "sabotage" businesses. The businesses targeted for the boycott included Equity Bank, Brookside Dairies, CityHoppa, and Kenya Bus; it was speculated that the boycott would not have a substantial impact and that many Kenyans would find it too impractical to observe. Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula, in reaction to criticism from the United Kingdom, summoned the UK's High Commissioner to complain, and he said that "our elections don't need a stamp of authority from the House of Commons". Annan arrived in Kenya on January 22.
On January 23, the ODM held a memorial service in Nairobi for victims of the violence, at which Odinga said that tribes should not fight because "this is a war between the people of Kenya and a very small bloodthirsty clique clinging to power". Meanwhile, police fired tear gas at some of his supporters outside; some tear gas affected the mourning service, dispersing it. The state-owned telecommunications building was attacked and set on fire. On the same day, Kibaki and Odinga met separately with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, and according to Museveni's press secretary an agreement was reached in principle to establish a judicial commission that would investigate the accusations of vote rigging; however, the two sides disagreed as to whether the government alone should appoint the members of the commission. Museveni was also said to have proposed a power-sharing deal, which was rejected by the government on the grounds that it was unwilling to share power with the ODM due to the latter's alleged responsibility for the killing of innocent people. Annan also met with Odinga, and the latter agreed to cancel the protests that were to have been held the next day.
Beginning of talks, killing of MPs;Kibaki and Odinga met for the first time since the crisis began on January 24, together with Annan. Annan called the meeting "very encouraging", saying that it represented "the first steps towards a peaceful solution of the problem". Kibaki and Odinga both said after the meeting that they were working towards a solution and urged the people to be peaceful. On January 25, Odinga said in an interview that a power-sharing deal was out of the question, and that the only possibilities acceptable to him were that Kibaki resign or that a new election be held. Responding to a claim by Human Rights Watch that ODM leaders were orchestrating violence, he said that the people were reacting spontaneously. As violence continued in the Rift Valley, Annan asked both sides to designate negotiators by January 29.
Meanwhile, serious violence broke out in Nakuru on January 24–25, apparently as a reaction to Kibaki describing himself as the "duly elected president" after meeting in person with Odinga. Kikuyus were attacked and a number of buildings were set on fire, along with Nakuru's only fire engine; at least 12 deaths were reported. Another town, Total Station, was half-destroyed in violence between Kikuyus and Kalenjin, with at least two deaths reported, and as many as 50,000 people fled from violence near Molo. By January 27 at least 55 people had been killed in Nakuru, along with at least five in Kaptembwa and Sewage, two slums near Nakuru, while at least nine deaths were reported in Naivasha, where Kikuyus set Luo homes on fire. By January 28, at least 64 people had been killed in Nakuru and at least 22 in Naivasha; 19 of the deaths in Naivasha occurred when Kikuyus set fire to a place where Luos had fled for safety. ODM chairperson Henry Kosgei accused the government of facilitating the killing in Nakuru by imposing a curfew, which he said was used "to keep some groups indoors to be killed", on January 28.
Mugabe Were, an ODM Member of Parliament, was shot and killed early on January 29. Renewed protests and violence followed his death. Addressing the National Assembly before beginning talks, Annan called for an end to the "downward spiral into chaos that is threatening this beautiful country." The talks then began, although they were delayed by 90 minutes due to disputed seating arrangements. Annan said that resolution of short-term issues might occur in four weeks, although he thought deeper talks might continue for a year.
Another ODM MP, David Kimutai Too, was shot and killed by a policeman in Eldoret on January 31. Police said the killing was related to a love triangle involving him, the officer who shot him, and a female officer, but the ODM called it an assassination, accusing the government of seeking to reduce the number of ODM Members of Parliament, and protests and violence broke out. The talks were postponed until the next day due to the killing.
Continued negotiations, signing of power-sharing agreement;UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon arrived in Kenya for a visit to assist the talks on February 1. Annan announced on 1 February that the two rival leaders had agreed on an agenda for peace talks, which included both short-term and long-term goals. The talks would last a month and would include the topics of ending the violence, the humanitarian situation, resolving the political crisis, and land and historical injustices. Annan said that he believed the first three of these four points could be resolved within seven to 15 days, and he said that an agreement had been reached on 18 measures to end the violence, including the demobilization of gangs and ceasing speeches and text messages that incite hatred and violence. Violence nevertheless continued; on the next day at least 20 people were reported to have been killed since the agreement. On February 3, Odinga called for African Union peacekeepers to be sent to Kenya.
South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa was unanimously chosen by Annan's team as chief mediator to lead long-term talks, but the government had concerns about Ramaphosa's involvement, saying that he and Odinga had business links. Ramaphosa consequently withdrew from the talks and Annan accepted his withdrawal on February 4. Odinga said on the same day that the ODM would withdraw from the talks if a deal was not reached, and he said that his party wanted a new presidential election to be held within three months, with a new electoral commission and the same voter register. The alternative possibility of a transitional coalition government, in which a new position of Prime Minister would be created for Odinga and Kibaki's power would be reduced, was something Odinga said he could consider, although it was not the option he preferred.
Opposing plans for a meeting of foreign ministers from the countries of the East African Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in Kenya, Nyongo said that the ODM would hold protests if the meeting went ahead, believing that the meeting would be a means to legitimize Kibaki's government. Annan was critical of this threat, saying that "provocative statements outside negotiations" were supposed to be avoided. The government subsequently said that the meeting would not officially be considered an IGAD meeting, and the ODM called off the protests on February 6.
On February 7, the two sides remained deeply divided in talks, although they agreed that there should not be a recount of votes. Annan said that he was "totally opposed to a re-election in this climate", referring to the persistent violence. Meanwhile, the United Nations Security Council called for peaceful resolution of the dispute through negotiations, the United States imposed a travel ban on ten unnamed Kenyans (a move that was praised by Kibaki's government), and a policeman, Edward Kirui, was arrested for allegedly shooting two protesters to death in Kisumu on January 16.
Progress in the talks was reported on February 8, with Annan saying that both sides had agreed on the need for a political settlement and that he hoped talks on point three (the resolution of the political crisis) could be concluded early in the next week. The ODM's William Ruto said that although there was progress, a solution had still not been reached, and he denied that a national unity government had been agreed upon; Mutula Kilonzo, a negotiator for the government, reported "excellent" progress. Saitoti, the Internal Security Minister, announced the end of the ban on rallies on the same day due to improved security, but said that rallies must be held only for peaceful purposes.
Despite the reported progress and his earlier adoption of a more conciliatory tone, Odinga returned to a hard-line stance on February 9, repeating his earlier demand that Kibaki should either resign or a new election should be held, and he said that he would not compromise on that point. Speaking before the National Assembly on February 12, Annan said that both sides in the talks had agreed to set up "an independent review committee that will be mandated to investigate all aspects of the 2007 presidential election". He also said that both sides in the National Assembly would have to work together to pass legislation needed to resolve the crisis. On the same day, as talks approached a potential agreement, talks were moved to a secret location, with Annan requesting a "complete news blackout" and asking participants in the talks to not disclose what was under discussion. Ruto said that the ODM had proposed a forming a government in which the two sides would share power for two years before a new election. Although Annan suggested that the two sides had agreed to a two-year power-sharing transitional government, the government objected, with the Justice Minister, Martha Karua, saying that this suggestion had misrepresented and undermined the government's position. On February 13, the mediators said in a statement that Annan had only expressed his own perspective and that he had not meant to suggest that the two sides had formally agreed on the proposal.
As talks adjourned on February 14, scheduled to resume the following week, government negotiator Kilonzo said that an agreement had been reached to write a new constitution. On February 15, Annan said that the two sides had agreed to a range of reforms, including the improvement of electoral laws and human rights, as well as a review of the constitution, although they had yet to agree upon the composition of a power-sharing government. It was reported that the government side wanted Kibaki to retain strong executive powers, while the opposition wanted Odinga to have extensive powers in a new position of Prime Minister. According to Annan, they were about to take "the last difficult and frightening step" to conclude a deal, and he said that he intended to remain in Kenya until a new government was in place, by which time he thought the process would be "irreversible". The commission charged with reviewing the election was to be established by March 15, with a report to follow within three to six months.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Kenya to support the talks on February 18. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Wetangula said that help was welcome but he stressed that ultimately the problem had to be solved by Kenyans and that no one should make the "mistake of putting a gun to anybody's head and saying 'either/or'" in an attempt to force a solution. Rice met with Kibaki, Odinga, and Annan, and she emphasized the importance of reaching a settlement, saying that one should have already been in place; however, she also said that the U.S. was not trying to "dictate a solution to Kenyans".
On February 19, Kibaki said that, while he was willing to share power in the government, an agreement should be made in the context of the existing constitution. Nyongo then called for the National Assembly to be summoned within a week "to enact the necessary changes in the constitution to implement these mediation proposals", warning that the ODM would otherwise resume protests. On February 21, Mutula Kilonzo said that the government side had accepted "the creation of the post of a non-executive prime minister with substantial responsibilities", but the opposition wanted the prime minister to be a head of government with executive powers. Nyongo said that he thought an agreement would be reached by the next day.
On February 21, East African Community Secretary-General Juma Mwapachu said that the crisis was having a negative effect on the regional economy. Speaking in Nairobi on February 22, newly-elected Chairman of the African Union Commission Jean Ping said it was hoped that an agreement would be reached by the next week.
An impasse was reached on 25 February 2008. While both parties agreed to the creation of the post of prime minister, they disagreed about the powers the newly created post should have, over government posts and over a possible election in case the coalition should split. Annan declared the talks suspended on 26 February, saying that they had "not broken down" but that the leaders needed to "become directly engaged in these talks". Mutula Kilonzo said that media reports of supposed deals had caused problems and complained of unfair pressure. The ODM's Mudavadi expressed frustration at the situation.
Jakaya Kikwete, the President of Tanzania and Chairman of the African Union, arrived in Kenya on February 27 to assist in the talks. On the same day, Odinga said that the ODM had decided not to resume protests as planned on February 28, expressing continued commitment to the talks.
On 28 February, Kibaki and Odinga signed the agreement meant to end the crisis at a ceremony in Nairobi; Annan said that the agreement was to be known as the National Accord and Reconciliation Act. The two leaders agreed to form a coalition government, with Odinga set to receive the new position of Prime Minister, in which capacity he is to "coordinate and supervise government affairs"; it remained unclear whether, as Prime Minister, he could still be overruled by Kibaki. According to the agreement, the Prime Minister must be an elected member of the National Assembly as well as the parliamentary leader of the party or coalition holding a majority of seats in the National Assembly. The agreement also provides for two Deputy Prime Ministers, one for each of the two parties, while the allotment of Cabinet portfolios is to reflect the relative strength of the respective parties in the National Assembly. The Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Ministers can only be removed from their positions if they lose a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly. Kibaki said that he would reconvene the National Assembly on March 6 so that it could make the constitutional changes needed in order to implement the agreement. (Courtesy of DNA and AP).
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