Thursday, February 26, 2009

Disputed results That Wasn't!!

Odinga held a strong lead in vote counting on December 28, the day after the election, and the ODM declared victory for Odinga on December 29; however, as more results were announced on the same day, the gap between the two candidates narrowed, and with almost 90% of the votes counted (180 out of 210 constituencies), Odinga's lead shrank to only 38,000 votes. At a press conference on the morning of December 30, Odinga accused the government of fraud, urged Kibaki to concede defeat, and called for a recount. He said that the ODM would not take the matter to the courts because they were controlled by Kibaki. The Electoral Commission declared Kibaki the winner on December 30, placing him ahead of Odinga by about 232,000 votes. According to Odinga, as many as 300,000 votes for Kibaki were falsely included in his total.

The Chairman of the Electoral Commission, Samuel Kivuitu, said that while irregularities did occur, they were a matter for the courts, not the Electoral Commission. Supporters of Kibaki, meanwhile, said that discrepancies had actually worked in Odinga's favor, arguing that discrepancies between polling station tallies and Electoral Commission results meant that Odinga had gained 53,000 votes while Kibaki had lost 106,000. Following the Commission's declaration of his victory, Kibaki was promptly sworn in for his second term late in the evening on the same day, calling for the "verdict of the people" to be respected and for "healing and reconciliation" to begin.

Kivuitu said that there were some problems in the vote counting, noting that in one constituency the reported turnout rate was 115%. According to the European Union's head observer in the election, Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, the election was "flawed" and the Electoral Commission failed to establish "the credibility of the tallying process to the satisfaction of all parties and candidates"; he said that in some places EU observers were not allowed to see vote tallies until the Electoral Commission announced them: "the whole point...is to verify that the results are the same". The United Kingdom's Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, said that his country had "real concerns" about the election. While the United States initially congratulated Kibaki and called for the results to be respected, it also expressed concern, and on January 2, 2008 a spokesman for the U.S. State Department declined to confirm U.S. recognition of Kibaki's victory. Kivuitu said on January 2 that he had been pressured by PNU and ODM-K (Kibaki's and Kalonzo Musyoka's parties) into announcing the results without delay, and he claimed that he did not personally know who really won.

Within minutes of the Commission's declaration of Kibaki as victor, tribe-based rioting and violence, primarily directed against Kikuyus, broke out across Kenya, and the government suspended live television coverage for some days. Odinga alleged that "a clique of people around Kibaki" sought to rig the election, but said that democracy "is unstoppable like the flow of the Nile". The ODM announced its intention to hold a ceremony on December 31 in which Odinga would be declared the "people's president", but police said that this could incite violence and that Odinga could be arrested if the ceremony occurred. Odinga then delayed this, but called for a million-strong rally on January 3, 2008 and for his supporters to wear black armbands as a show of mourning.

Odinga said that the ODM would not negotiate with Kibaki unless he resigned, because to do so would, according to Odinga, mean acknowledging Kibaki's legitimacy; he also said that, unless stopped, the "ruling clique" could rig the next election in five years as well, and that he was not afraid of being arrested, having been jailed many times in the past. For his part, Kibaki emphasized the importance of peace, stability, and tolerance in his 2008 New Year's message, speaking of the election as a concluded event and warning that law-breakers would be punished.

Rallies;Police cordon off Uhuru Park to bar opposition from holding their Mass protest rally.Odinga said that the million-strong rally in his support planned for January 3 would take place in spite of a government ban, and he accused the government of being directly responsible for "genocide". Electoral Commission Chairman Kivuitu said on January 1 that he had been pressured by the PNU and ODM-Kenya to announce results immediately, despite the urgings of Western ambassadors to delay the results so that concerns about irregularities could be addressed.

On January 3, opposition supporters attempted to gather for the planned rally in Uhuru Park, but police fought them off with tear gas and water cannons. Another attempt to hold the rally was planned for January 4. Also on January 3, Kibaki said that he was willing to engage in dialogue "once the country is calm", and he described the continuing violence as "senseless", while Attorney General Amos Wako called for a recount, an investigation into the election, and the formation of a national unity government, saying that the situation was "quickly degenerating into a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions". Finance Minister Amos Kimunya said that if the ODM did not allege fraud, that would make it easier for the two sides to talk; Kimunya also said that the government wanted to mediate through Kenyan elders and did not want international mediation involving the African Union. KANU's Uhuru Kenyatta said that it might be possible for the two sides to work together, but that the ODM's position that Kibaki should resign before any talks took place was unacceptable, because then there would be "no government".
On January 4, ODM Secretary-General Anyang Nyongo called for a new presidential election to be held, without the involvement of the Electoral Commission. Government spokesman Alfred Mutua said that this would be possible only if it was decided by the courts.

After meeting U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer, Kibaki said on January 5 that he was willing to form a national unity government, but Odinga, who also met with Frazer, rejected this, saying that Kibaki "should not come to the negotiating table as the president" and calling for the creation of a transitional government leading to a new election in three to six months. However, after Odinga met with Frazer for a second time shortly afterward, Odinga's spokesman said that the ODM would not demand that Kibaki resign or admit defeat if he accepted an international mediator. At about the same time, while violence continued, it was reported to be decreasing in Nairobi.(Courtesy of DNA and AP).

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